Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
