A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
